Three Strikers, Three Styles: How Mbappé, Lewandowski and Álvarez Score Their Goals

La Liga’s new season has already produced a few unexpected storylines, yet the top of the table feels very familiar. Newly promoted Elche have started well, and Espanyol have turned last year’s relegation fight into a push for European places. But when you look at the contenders and the players driving their success, it becomes clear that many of the usual forces are once again shaping the league.

This analysis focuses on the three forwards leading the early Pichichi race: Kylian Mbappé, Robert Lewandowski and Julián Álvarez. Their shooting profiles reveal how each striker finds success in a slightly different way.

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Kylian Mbappé

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Kylian Mbappé is a volume shooter who has taken more shots than any other player in La Liga, and he converts them at an above-average rate (22.4% vs. the league average of 15.9% for centre-forwards). Unsurprisingly, his goalscoring also improves as chance quality increases: his conversion rate rises to 38.1% for half-chances (or better) and 63.6% for clear chances.

However, here at Gradient we don’t just count shots and their outcomes - we grade them. This allows us to identify whether a player executed a shot above, below, or in line with expectations (click here for more information on our grading process). So while Mbappé has accumulated more above-expectation shots this season (10) than any other player in La Liga, these make up a smaller share of his total attempts (17.2%) compared with Álvarez (28.1%) and Lewandowski (30%). In other words, Mbappé’s league-leading goal output this season is driven more by the volume and quality of chances created by him and his Real Madrid teammates than by superior finishing alone.

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Robert Lewandowski

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Robert Lewandowski is the marksman of this group. His playing time has been limited to nine appearances and just four starts (529 minutes in total) due to a hamstring injury that has disrupted his start to the season. Despite this setback, the Polish striker is still averaging an absurd 1.19 goals per 90 minutes, comfortably ahead of Mbappé (1.03) and Álvarez (0.62). His 35% shot conversion rate is the highest of any centre-forward in La Liga with more than 10 attempts, and like Mbappé, his efficiency improves as chance quality increases—rising to an astounding 83.3% for clear chances.

Crucially, these conversion rates are backed by strong shooting execution. Lewandowski has produced more shots above expectation [6] than below [5] which is a rare feat. His opportunities this season may have been limited, but he has certainly made the most of them when they’ve come his way.

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Julián Álvarez

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Julián Álvarez has neither the shot volume of Mbappé nor the finishing efficiency of Lewandowski, but he has kept pace with the former Pichichi winners through the quality of his shooting. Unlike the other two, Álvarez hasn’t been able to depend on high-quality chances, averaging just 0.62 half-chances (or better) per 90 minutes this season, which is far below the 1.7 per 90 achieved by both Mbappé and Lewandowski. And when those clearer opportunities do arrive, his conversion actually drops, falling from a 21.9% overall shot conversion rate to 16.7% on clear chances.

So how has he compensated for this? Through the quality of his execution, particularly on lower-quality attempts. His nine shots above expectation are the second-most in La Liga (behind only Mbappé), and he has achieved this with far fewer total attempts. His 28.1% above-expectation rate is much more in line with Lewandowski’s than Mbappé’s.

In essence, Álvarez is the “Goldilocks” of the group: he doesn’t have Mbappé’s volume or Lewandowski’s chance quality, but his shooting quality allows him to match them both. That’s reflected in his Shooting Grade of 91.5 - the highest of the three.

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La Liga is well supplied with great strikers, each with a distinct shooting profile. By examining three of the best from this season, we can see how each achieves success in different ways and styles. Using our unique grading data, we are able to provide an extra layer of analysis, capturing not just that a player executed an action, but how well they did so. This leads us to conclude that Álvarez is the most technically proficient shooter in La Liga so far this season - but safe to say, Mbappé and Lewandowski don’t look like bad options either.

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