January Transfer Window 2026 - The data behind the biggest moves of the window

This blog will be updated to review both the latest transfer rumours and completed deals in the 2026 January Transfer Window, using Gradient Sports player grades, event data, and physical metrics.

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Rumour: Premier League sides interested in Jorgen Strand Larsen

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Crystal Palace seem to be leading the race to sign Wolves striker Jorgen Strand Larsen, with Newcastle, Tottenham and Leeds United also reporting interest.

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Some might be confused as to why multiple teams are trying to sign a striker who has scored just one goal in 21 appearances for a team currently sitting rock bottom of the Premier League this season. However, the data tells a different story. Strand Larsen has graded at or above his positional average in every major attacking category this season, but it’s the data from the 2024/25 season, when he received far more service from Matheus Cunha and Rayan Aït-Nouri, that excites some of the biggest teams in Europe.

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In 2024/25, Strand Larsen ranked 39th in our Top 50 Premier League players, and when analysing his performances, this is the data we found (taken from our Top 50 article last year):

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Matheus Cunha has grabbed a lot of the headlines (for good and for bad), but Jorgen Strand Larsen has held his own up top for Wolves. His Shooting grade of 87.1 not only led his team, but ranked 2nd among all CFs, trailing only his Norwegian teammate Erling Haaland.

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He’s also shown he’s not afraid to get stuck in, displaying his physicality by ranking 8th in his position for both Aerial Duels won (89) and Challenges won (128). Tie that in with his 77.1 Tackle Resistance grade (ranked 8th among CFs), while also being the 7th most targeted CF in the Premier League (1,373 targets), and he has proven to be an incredibly reliable option for both Gary O’Neil and Vítor Pereira.

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Strand Larsen’s greatest asset is a simple one: he doesn’t do a lot wrong. Whenever a player attempts to receive the ball from a cross or pass, we grade them on positioning and movement. Strand Larsen has had 217 cross targets this season and just 14 downgrades. Being at fault only 6.5% of the time, this ranks 1st among all CFs this season. His decision-making when shooting is also elite — only 5.4% of his shots had a better option available (ranking 2nd best among CFs). This is a trait elite teams value highly, especially when needing to maximise chances against low blocks.

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Confirmed: Antoine Semenyo to Manchester City deal done (worth £62.5m + add ons)

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With the signing of Antoine Semenyo, Manchester City have added yet another player with positional versatility who can use both feet.

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In the Premier League this season, only Rayan Cherki, Georginio Rutter and Josko Gvardiol have used both feet more than Antoine Semenyo, with 3 of those 4 players now playing under Pep Guardiola at City.

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Semenyo is a player who thrives in transition and in the final third, aligning with Pep’s new style of play, with Manchester City at the top of the metrics in sprinting distance and total distance per 90.

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Semenyo ranks in the top 10 among wingers and attacking midfielders in successful ball carries and passes into a dangerous area in the Premier League this season. Add his 80.6 Shooting Grade, which includes above positional average performance with both his right and left foot, and you have a very complete player who is Premier League ready.

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Rumour: Crystal Palace would sell Marc Guehi at the right price

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With just six months remaining on his contract, it is widely known that Marc Guehi is set to leave Crystal Palace on a free transfer at the end of the season.

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With Manchester City defenders Joško Gvardiol and Rúben Dias suffering injuries last week against Chelsea, City are now exploring an immediate move for the England centre-back.

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Guehi has been remarkably consistent this season, grading above his positional average in every major category. He also offers positional versatility, being able to operate in all three centre-back positions. Guehi currently ranks as the second most two-footed player in the Premier League this season. 70.9% of his passes, crosses, shots, and clearances are with his right foot, and 29.1% with his left foot. Guehi’s 6.82 pass interceptions per 90 ranks second among all Premier League centre-backs, and his 0.99 positional mistakes per 30 out of possession ranks 13th among all centre-backs, highlighting the range of skills he possesses in defence.

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At just 25 years old, it will not only be Manchester City trying to get a deal done, as there will be many suitors from Europe’s top clubs.

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Confirmed: Brennan Johnson – WAM (Tottenham Hotspur to Crystal Palace)

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Tottenham winger Brennan Johnson has agreed to join Crystal Palace in a deal worth £35 million ($47.2m), via ESPN.

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Johnson will give Crystal Palace some much-needed depth in their attacking rotation as they battle a congested fixture schedule to close out the season. The Welshman was a mainstay in Spurs’ 2024/25 side, making 33 appearances and recording 14 Premier League goal involvements.

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Johnson has struggled at times to fit into Thomas Frank’s Spurs side this season, and our grades reflect that inconsistency.

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However, there is a strong chance this is down to system fit and confidence rather than ability. Earlier this season, our data science team looked into how Glasner’s Palace side play (read here), and there are several key elements that align well with Johnson’s style.

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Out-of-possession work

Johnson ranks in the 70th+ percentile this season for Athleticism score, high-speed running distance, sprint distance, and total distance.

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Crossing efficiency

Johnson has graded above his positional average in crossing across both the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons.

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Palace’s strength lies in the work of their wing-backs, and Brennan Johnson should be able to provide useful support to them both in attack and defence.

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Confirmed: Taty Castellanos - CF (Lazio to West Ham) 

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Per Fabrizio Romano, West Ham have agreed to sign Lazio's 27-year-old Argentina striker Taty Castellanos for 29m euros (£25m).

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Taty Castellanos rose to prominence at New York City FC, where he became one of MLS’s most complete forwards and a key part of the City Football Group ecosystem, Castellanos was a player who always topped our grades when we covered MLS back in 2021/22.

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His 85.3 Shooting Grade in Serie A this season ranks 10th among all players, and 6th among CF’s.

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Castellanos is targeted in 5.88 crosses per 90, with his 69.8 Aerial Duel grade ranking 6th best among Serie A CF’s. He has received 6.35 line-breaking passes per 90, over double that of Callum Wilson this season (3.0), which could indicate a different style of forward for more transitional games.

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Physically, he will provide a little bit more than Callum Wilson in terms of high-speed running, total distance and accelerations, but his numbers are around the 40-60th percentile for his position.

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This blog will be updated daily, check back later for more data on the latest transfer deals.