Finding Transfer Replacements: Data-Driven Options for Premier League Clubs Facing Departures

It looked likely that Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi would depart this summer for Liverpool. Now, with his contract down to its final six months and with it becoming increasingly clear that he wants to leave, it is in Palace’s best interest to capitalise and secure a transfer fee before he signs a pre-contract somewhere else and leaves for free. However, that leaves Palace with a significant issue. Their FA Cup-winning centre-back has been a mainstay in the defence since joining from Chelsea in 2021. Now 25 years old and entering his prime, finding a suitable replacement for what they are about to lose is an incredibly difficult task. In this article, I will be using Gradient Grades and metrics to identify players across the big five leagues in Europe who have similar profiles to Guehi and to other potential January targets to see who their clubs can pursue to replace their departing stars.

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Crystal Palace replacing Marc Guehi

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Leopold Querfeld, 21, Union Berlin

Austrian international Leopold Querfeld is probably the closest comparison to Guehi based on performances so far this season. The 21-year-old is now in his second Bundesliga season and has been ever-present for Union Berlin, playing every minute.

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As shown in the comparison, Querfeld has very similar grades in many of the attributes Guehi excels in. They both have excellent 50/50 and tackling grades, with Guehi producing an elite 90+ tackling grade and Querfeld recording an elite 90+ grade in 50/50 duels. Querfeld performs slightly better in areas where Guehi has struggled. Guehi has been below average in both passing and clearances, while Querfeld has been average and good in those categories respectively. Both have limited positional mistakes this season, although Querfeld has had five major positional mistakes to Guehi’s one, meaning he has made more errors leading to chances or ones that should have led to chances. Querfeld ranks 18th in Aerial Duels among centre-backs in the Bundesliga and first across all players in 50/50 duels.

The big question with Querfeld as a transfer target for Palace is the same one that applies to most players moving to the Premier League: can he handle the physicality? At 6’3” and with video showing how he achieves his high duel grades through strength and aerial dominance, he appears capable of adjusting to a new league.

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Honest Ahanor, 17, Atalanta

One player who may be worth monitoring for the future is 17-year-old Honest Ahanor. The Italian-born centre-back joined Atalanta for £17.5 million this summer after only nine senior appearances for Genoa. He has made six Serie A appearances and played three times in the Champions League. In a small sample size his grades have been impressive and comparable to Guehi’s, with an 84.4 tackling grade, a 79.1 Defending Dribbles Grade and a 78.5 grade in 50/50 duels. He has also not received a positional downgrade yet in Serie A. While he will not be available this season given his recent transfer and limited CV, he is a player whose development is worth tracking for the future.

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Brighton replacing Carlos Baleba

Carlos Baleba has been linked with Manchester United among others, and Brighton’s policy has long been to sell and replace players at their maximum value. They have done this with Alexis Mac Allister, Moises Caicedo and Marc Cucurella. Baleba was excellent in his first two seasons replacing Caicedo. Last season he looked like another midfielder set to triple or quadruple the fee Brighton paid for him. This year, however, he has struggled to reach those levels, performing at average or below average in attributes he excelled in last season. If Brighton lose Baleba, they will want a replacement who can replicate the 2024-2025 version of the player, so we are looking for someone who matches those grades.

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Arthur Avom, 20, FC Lorient

Arthur Avom is an increasingly recognised talent, producing solid performances even as FC Lorient struggle near the bottom of Ligue 1.

He has almost identical grades to the 2024-2025 version of Carlos Baleba across several categories:

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Like Baleba last season, he has above-average to good grades in many qualities required in a holding midfielder. He also has an excellent 50/50 duel grade similar to Baleba’s. His general passing grade is slightly below average, but he has an above-average grade when passing under pressure (73.9) and an almost excellent 79.9 for through balls, the sixth highest among Ligue 1 midfielders. He also has a near-excellent crossing grade at 79.4 and a dribbling grade of 78.0. He has been a more progressive passer this season, partly evidenced by his through-ball grade, breaking a line in 10.3 percent of his passes compared to Baleba’s 6.5 percent this season.

There were rumours in the summer that Chelsea were interested in Avom via a move to their multi-club partner Strasbourg. If Brighton were interested, a direct Premier League move might attract Avom more than time spent developing in France and hoping Chelsea eventually call him up. The young Cameroonian was a key part of Lorient’s Ligue 2 title-winning side last season, featuring in 33 of their 34 matches. Although they currently sit second bottom of Ligue 1, it has been reported that Avom’s contract has recently been extended to June 2027. Lorient may use that to keep one of their best players for their survival push and to maximise his value at the end of the season.

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Nottingham Forest replacing Elliot Anderson

As Nottingham Forest spent much of last season in the Champions League places before fading late in the campaign, Elliot Anderson was among several players who delivered impressive performances. We ranked him as the 46th-best player in the Premier League in our end-of-season top 50 list, but this year he has taken his game to a new level, as outlined in our earlier article.

With rumours linking him to Manchester United and with Forest sitting near the bottom of the table, they may need to plan for life without him. The problem is that when a player is performing at such a high level, he becomes even harder to replace. The unfortunate reality for Forest is that Anderson is almost irreplaceable. The closest comparison in performance and production this season is Vitinha at Paris Saint-Germain. Both have excellent passing grades, thrive when passing under pressure and lead their respective leagues in line-breaking passes, which is a testament to how well Anderson has played.

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Hugo Sotelo, 21, Celta Vigo

The closest comparable player for Anderson is Celta Vigo’s Hugo Sotelo. The Spaniard has a lot of qualities that match Anderson’s production this year but does fall short in a couple of others. 

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At first glance, Sotelo has a lot of impressive grades and metrics. His 85.8 passing grade is excellent and very close to Anderson’s, which is the 5th best passing grade in the Premier league. He’s as progressive as Anderson with 14% of his passes breaking a line and has created a similar amount of clear chances. The issue comes where you look at the grades that relate to the defensive aspects of playing centre-midfield. He’s below-average in 50/50 duels, defending dribbles and tackling, all attributes that Anderson performs averagely or above-averagely in. On our earlier analysis of centre-back Leopold Querfeld having the physical qualities to play in England, those grades do leave a worry that Sotelo would struggle in that respect. It just goes to illustrate why Forest will be so desperate to keep hold of their number 8 as players like him are hard to find.

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Everton replacing Iliman Ndiaye

Iliman Ndiaye is another player whose early-season performances have attracted interest across Europe and the Premier League. This feels like the first Everton side in a few years that looks comfortably mid-table without the threat of relegation hanging over their season, and Ndiaye has been a major part of that in his second year at the club. As with Anderson, when a player reaches such a high level of performance he becomes even harder to replace. Ndiaye has excelled in the key attributes needed for a winger. He has the highest shooting grade among Premier League wingers, the highest open-play crossing grade in the league and the third-highest dribbling grade at his position.

Of all players across the big five European leagues, only five wingers have above-average grades in shooting, open-play crossing and dribbling, and four of them play in the Premier League:

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Everton are unlikely to sign any of these players. Bowen is the only one who might be available at the end of the season if West Ham continue to struggle and are relegated, but he would initially target a move to a top-half Premier League side. Even then, none of Ndiaye’s four Premier League peers have excelled in all three categories as he has this year.

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Malick Fofana, 20, Lyon

The only player outside the Premier League with above-average grades in those categories is Lyon’s Malick Fofana. The 20-year-old has an excellent shot grade and above-average grades in crossing and dribbling (85.3, 70.8, 73.6) and is a developing talent following his £19 million move from Gent last summer. While his grades do not exactly match Ndiaye’s, some of his metrics do. Fofana is a more aggressive passer than Ndiaye, with 13 percent of his passes going into dangerous areas in or around the box, almost double Ndiaye’s 7 percent. Ndiaye is more incisive though, creating 12 clear chances compared to Fofana’s six.

Lyon currently sit seventh in Ligue 1 outside the European qualification places. If they manage to qualify for the Europa League or Europa Conference League, Everton’s lack of European football may make them a less attractive destination.

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