Which Premier League Players Should Shoot More — and Who Should Shoot Less?

One of the defining qualities of Gradient Sports' data set is the ability to combine our execution based player grades with some of our unique metrics. When you manually evaluate every single event a player is involved in on the pitch, you are able to dive into some more subjective matters with more confidence, such as decision making. 

A key example of this is our Better Option Percentage (SHTBO%) metric. Shooting volume alone tells us very little about the quality of the shot itself and the decision making process behind that shot. Is a player commanding a large share of his team's chances because his manager is deliberately funnelling the attacking phases through him? Or is he going rogue — pulling the trigger from 30 yards out or from tight angles, rather than retaining possession and working for a higher-quality look?

This is where the Better Option metric comes in.

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Understanding the Better Option Metric

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Shooting from positions with low expected goals (xG), or with multiple defenders closing the angle, is usually sub-optimal compared to retaining the ball, holding up play, or playing a pass to create a more dangerous attacking position. If a player has a Better Option flagged on a shot, our analysts have identified that an alternative decision — whether a pass, a lay-off, or simply keeping possession — would have left the team in a better position closer to goal.

It is important to note that the Better Option flag does not take the final quality of the shot into account. If a player scores a screamer from 45 yards out, they will receive our highest grade for the execution of the shot itself, but a Better Option will almost certainly still be attached. That is because 99 times out of 100, shooting from that range results in a turnover and the opposition regaining possession. The metric is about decision-making quality, not outcome. The same goes for a goal scored by a keeper mistake, let’s say a winger mishits the ball from a poor angle with a clear crossing option available, the outcome may have been a goal due to an error, but the Better Option will be tagged, alongside a Shooting Grade downgrade for poor execution.

Players who carry a high SHTBO% tend to be more selfish in their shot selection, favouring attempts from distance or unfavourable wide angles. When a player accounts for a large share of his team's shots, paired with a high SHTBO%, and also grades below average in our Shooting Grade, the data suggests they are taking matters into their own hands and wasting valuable attacking possessions.

Of course there are some caveats to this, we don’t know the assignment of every player on the pitch, but our team of analysts (including former Premier League coaches) work with teams in an alpha programme to validate these processes. 

Ideally, a team wants its highest share of shots taken by players who combine a high Gradient Shooting Grade — meaning their finishing ability is excellent — with a low SHTBO%, meaning they are consistently shooting from positions that maximise the team's chances of scoring.

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Methodology & Report Parameters

To ensure data integrity and remove small sample sizes, a 25% threshold was applied for shots attempted. This is data up to GW 28 only.

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League Average (Filtered Group)

Gradient Shooting Grade - 74.27

Better Option % (SHTBO%) - 31.38%

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Minimum Shots to Qualify - 25 (25% of Haaland's 99)

The % of Team's Shots figure was calculated using the sum of all shots attempted by a team across their entire squad before applying the 25-shot threshold. This ensures each player's share accurately reflects their true role in the team's attacking output, rather than being inflated by a reduced denominator.

The league averages quoted throughout this report apply only to this filtered group of qualified players — those who have attempted at least 25 shots this season.

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Who Should Shoot Less?

Criteria: Below-average Shooting Grade (< 74.27) AND Above-average Better Option % (> 31.38%).

These players are commanding a notable portion of their team's chances, yet are frequently shooting from sub-optimal positions while converting at a below-average rate. The data suggests they should be looking to pass or hold up play more often, rather than forcing attempts that are unlikely to yield goals.

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Matty Cash — Aston Villa

The Aston Villa right-back leads the list in terms of how frequently he ignores a better decision, with 64% of his shots taken from positions where an alternative would have been more beneficial to his team. For a defender accumulating 25 shots, that volume alone raises questions. With a Shooting Grade of 65.5 and nearly two-thirds of his attempts flagged, Villa would benefit significantly from Cash showing more composure and looking for a better option in these moments.

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Elliot Anderson & Callum Hudson-Odoi — Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest have two players on this list, which points to a potential systemic issue in how Forest's midfield and attacking players are approaching their shooting decisions. Anderson has a Better Option Percentage of 60%, while Hudson-Odoi sits at 58.6%. Between them, they account for nearly 16% of Forest's total shots — a sizeable portion of the team's attacking output. Game state comes into effect here as you are more likely to rush speculative attempts when chasing games. There is no questioning the talent of either player, but Forest need to review their attacking sequences and make sure they are creating higher value chances.

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‍Jacob Murphy — Newcastle United

Murphy's 60% Better Option Percentage is concerning for a player taking 9.3% of Newcastle's total shots. His Shooting Grade of 58.8 is well below the league average, suggesting that not only is he shooting too often from bad positions — he is also failing to convert when he does pull the trigger. This isn’t a surprise when you lose Alexander Isak as your number 9, a player Murphy had excellent chemistry with.

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Who Should Shoot More? — The "Feed Them" List

Criteria: Above-average Shooting Grade (> 74.27) AND Below-average Better Option % (< 31.38%).

These are the Premier League's most disciplined and efficient finishers so far this season. When they shoot, it is almost always the right decision — from a good position, in a good moment.

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Viktor Gyokeres — Arsenal

Of all the players on this list, Gyokeres presents perhaps the most compelling case. There’s no doubt that the Swedish International has struggled at times this season with his hold up play and making dynamic runs against low blocks, but the data does tell us one thing, his decision making has been excellent. 

A Better Option Percentage of just 7.3% is extraordinarily low — it means that in fewer than one in thirteen of his shot attempts our analysis identified a better decision available to him. He is not just an efficient shooter; he is an almost uniquely disciplined one. You could argue that this is expected of a number 9 for a team top of the league, yet he accounts for just 10.4% of Arsenal's total shots. In a season where Arsenal have been searching for attacking consistency, the data makes a strong case that the Gunners should be engineering more shooting opportunities for their striker.

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Eli Kroupi — AFC Bournemouth

Kroupi currently leads the entire filtered group with a Shooting Grade of 92.9 — the highest in the division among qualified players. That exceptional grade, combined with a Better Option Percentage of 20.7%, paints the picture of a striker who is clinical when he shoots but also smart when he chooses to do so. And yet he accounts for fewer than 9% of Bournemouth's total shots. There is a strong argument that Bournemouth are leaving points on the pitch by  a) not playing Kroupi more and b) making sure he takes the majority of their shots.

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Erling Haaland — Manchester City

It would be remiss not to address Haaland, who remains the benchmark for everything this analysis is trying to measure. With 99 shots attempted — a figure that sets the threshold for the entire report — he combines a Shooting Grade of 87.8 with a Better Option Percentage of just 10.3%. His 20.8% share of Manchester City's shots is the correct tactical call, and the data continues to validate Pep Guardiola's philosophy of making him the focal point of their attack. Even in a ‘down’ year, Haaland sets the benchmark.

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Benjamin Sesko — Manchester United

Sesko's development at Old Trafford has been one of the more quietly impressive individual storylines of the season. With a Shooting Grade of 89.8 and a Better Option Percentage of 11.4%, he is among the most disciplined and efficient shooters in the division. That he accounts for 10.8% of Manchester United's shots is a reasonable figure — but given his recent form, there is a case to be made that the team would benefit from Sesko playing more minutes.

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